How will COVID-19 impact our local market?

Will people begin leaving the more densely populated urban areas of the United States to achieve “social distancing”? It’s too early to tell at this point if this is just a passing consideration or the beginning of a population shift. Either way, if you own land, it probably wouldn’t hurt if you spent a little extra time on it over the next few weeks.

Many of us are wondering what the impact of the coronavirus will be on the global economy and our communities. We can only guess if this will be a phenomenon that has a lasting impact or will pass us by in a matter of weeks.

“Before Coronavirus,” when March Madness Basketball was around the corner, the weekly jobless claims were solid and purchase application data just showed its seventh-straight week of double-digit growth year over year at cycle highs in demand!

Do you even remember what you were complaining about in the days of B.C.?

Alas, the era A.D. (After Disease) is upon us, and to say the economic landscape has been chaotic is an understatement. This has been especially true of the mortgage market.

On Monday, March 9, the 10-year Treasury bond yield hit a record low rate of 0.32%, went up 22 basis points by the end of the day, then went up another 28 basis points by the close on Wednesday. Following suit, mortgage rates jumped 0.5%-1%.

Cancellations of purchase contracts for both new and existing homes will be telling. We can expect this to come clear and happen in the next 30 days, if mortgage pricing does not improve.

For the economy in general, the first quarter of 2020’s GDP doesn’t have the full impact of the virus. The second quarter will capture the beginnings of the full effect of the virus, which will show a dramatic shock to the economy.

By the third quarter, numbers should improve, only from a low base indicating that the worst of it is over. By the fourth quarter we should be working from a much, more stable situation! The headlines of the virus news will be much better and we will have started the process of getting back to “B.C.”

For the next three and a half months, however, we will be declaring war on this virus. All of us will come together as a nation to defeat it. We will do this by getting more tests done, social distancing and helping each other to stay healthy.

Stay positive and stay healthy, my friends.

Brother Richard Hendrick, a Capuchin Franciscan living in Ireland, has penned a touching poem about coronavirus:

Lockdown

Yes there is fear.
Yes there is isolation.
Yes there is panic buying.
Yes there is sickness.
Yes there is even death.
But,
They say that in Wuhan after so many years of noise
You can hear the birds again.
They say that after just a few weeks of quiet
The sky is no longer thick with fumes
But blue and grey and clear.
They say that in the streets of Assisi
People are singing to each other
across the empty squares,
keeping their windows open
so that those who are alone
may hear the sounds of family around them.
They say that a hotel in the West of Ireland
Is offering free meals and delivery to the housebound.
Today a young woman I know
is busy spreading fliers with her number
through the neighbourhood
So that the elders may have someone to call on.
Today Churches, Synagogues, Mosques and Temples
are preparing to welcome
and shelter the homeless, the sick, the weary
All over the world people are slowing down and reflecting
All over the world people are looking at their neighbours in a new way
All over the world people are waking up to a new reality
To how big we really are.
To how little control we really have.
To what really matters.
To Love.
So we pray and we remember that
Yes there is fear.
But there does not have to be hate.
Yes there is isolation.
But there does not have to be loneliness.
Yes there is panic buying.
But there does not have to be meanness.
Yes there is sickness.
But there does not have to be disease of the soul
Yes there is even death.
But there can always be a rebirth of love.
Wake to the choices you make as to how to live now.
Today, breathe.
Listen, behind the factory noises of your panic
The birds are singing again
The sky is clearing,
Spring is coming,
And we are always encompassed by Love.
Open the windows of your soul
And though you may not be able
to touch across the empty square,
Sing.